By Xie Hao
The new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently called on NATO countries to "move to a wartime mentality and increase our defense production and defense spending." He stated that he would push member states to move towards the goal of "military spending exceeding 2% of GDP." During the NATO Foreign Ministers' Meeting earlier this month, representatives of some European members of NATO proposed increasing defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2030. As the largest military organization in the world today, NATO's constant pushing for increased defense spending has drawn widespread attention.
For a prolonged period after the Cold War, many European members of NATO believed that security threats had diminished and consequently reduced their defense budgets. After Crimea's annexation by Russia in 2014, NATO member countries committed to increasing their defense spending to 2% of GDP within10 years. However, European members of NATO have long shown insufficient willingness to fulfill this obligation, with only six members reaching the 2% target by 2018. European defense spending surged after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It is expected that 23 European members of NATO will meet the target this year. Some European countries even hope to pass new targets at the NATO summit next June, with a short-term goal of 2.5% and reaching 3% by 2030.
The increase in NATO's military expenditure reflects both internal anxieties and external concerns. On one hand, NATO has already invested significant military aid to Ukraine but has still failed to achieve its strategic objectives. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its fourth year, NATO is concerned that insufficient support to Ukraine may allow Russia to achieve its strategic goals, which could deliver a major blow to NATO's credibility and security. Data has shown that military spending by European members of NATO and Canada increased by nearly 20% in 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite this, NATO continues to vigorously promote anti-Russia sentiment and pressure its members to raise the proportion of defense spending in their GDP.
On the other hand, the push of NATO for increased defense spending also aims to cater to US President-elect Donald Trump. During his first term, Donald Trump frequently criticized NATO members for not meeting defense spending targets and even threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. In his campaign for a second term, he repeatedly promised that, if re-elected, he would quickly bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. European countries are hoping to demonstrate their support for the US by increasing their defense spending. Meanwhile, if Donald Trump were to insist on reducing the defense commitments of the US to NATO, European members of NATO could use this move as a precautionary measure to maintain their own defense capabilities.
It should be noted that pushing for an increase in military spending will neither resolve NATO's difficulties nor satisfy Donald Trump's demands.
Currently, many NATO countries are preparing for future Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but Mark Rutte continues to call for more weapons to be sent to Ukraine before negotiations, aiming to strengthen aid to Ukraine and increase NATO defense spending in order to gain leverage in the talks. This hardline stance is not conducive to advancing Russia-Ukraine peace talks. On the contrary, it will further escalate geopolitical confrontation. Moreover, in the context of weak economic growth in Europe, increasing defense spending will inevitably lead to cuts in social welfare and other public spending, which could trigger large-scale strikes, protests, and demonstrations, and even result in the rise of populism and extremism, potentially leading to political instability. In fact, both France and Germany have faced government failures to pass votes of confidence in their parliaments due to excessive fiscal pressure.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump's demands on European members of NATO have continued to increase. According to media reports, Donald Trump's team has informed European officials that NATO members are required to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP and continue providing military aid to Ukraine. On one hand, this demands that European members of NATO take on more defense responsibilities and create more orders for US arms manufacturers. On the other hand, it aims to help the US focus its resources on advancing the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Analysts believe that the 5% target signifies preparation for large-scale warfare. Amid sluggish economic growth in Europe and the prolonged regional conflicts, the insistence of NATO on increasing defense spending and strengthening geopolitical confrontation will not bring true peace to Europe. Instead, it will impose an even heavier burden on European people and generate more panic.
(The author is from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.)
