By Hong Yan
洪言
On July 10 local time, a UK-France summit was held in London. Following the summit, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that the declaration signed by the UK and France would, for the first time, allow the two countries to coordinate their nuclear forces, calling it a significant leap forward in the UK-France partnership.
当地时间7月10日，英法峰会在英国伦敦举行。会后，英国首相斯塔默表示，英法两国签署的声明将首次允许英国和法国协调核力量，并期待英法两国“伙伴关系的一次重大飞跃”。
According to reports, the UK and France signed the Northwood Declaration , marking the first time the two sides have explicitly agreed to coordinate their respective independent nuclear deterrent forces.
据报道，英法双方签署了《诺斯伍德宣言》（Northward declaration），首次明确双方将就各自独立的核威慑力量进行协调。
A Vanguard-class nuclear submarine with the US-made Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missile returns from patrol.
巡逻归来的英国“前卫”级核潜艇，该潜艇搭载了美国的“三叉戟-2D5”潜射导弹。
As the only two nuclear-armed states in Europe, the UK and France have long pursued very different nuclear strategies. The former builds its nuclear posture around reliance on the US, while the latter insists on maintaining an independent nuclear policy. The timing of the two countries signing a nuclear cooperation agreement and issuing a joint declaration is telling.
作为欧洲唯二拥有核武器的国家，英法走着完全不同的核战略路线，英国以依附美国为政策主线，法国则走着独立自主的核路线。而此时两国签署核合作协议、发表核合作声明则耐人寻味。
This move likely reflects a sense of disappointment among European nations regarding the US commitment to regional security. Under the new Trump administration, Washington has been readjusting its strategy toward Europe, and the traditional transatlantic partnership has grown increasingly strained. It can be said that Europe's confidence in the US security guarantee has been partially eroded. As the only nuclear-armed states in Europe, the UK and France moving closer at this moment signals not only their dissatisfaction with Washington but also Europe's determination to enhance its security autonomy, a rare assertion of Europe's independent defense resolve.
英法核合作很有可能反映出欧洲国家在防务方面对美国的失望。特朗普新一任期内调整美国对欧洲战略，传统的跨大西洋伙伴关系渐行渐远。可以说目前欧洲对美国的安全保证失去了部分信心，作为欧洲自己的核武器国家，英法两国此时走近不排除是为了表达对美国的不满和欧洲自保的决心，是欧洲在防务安全领域的一次独秀。
France's move to coordinate its nuclear deterrent with the UK may also reveal its lingering ambition, yet limited capacity, to independently lead Europe's security and nuclear defense. On paper, France relies on just four Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines to shoulder its strategic nuclear deterrence, while its air-based nuclear forces mainly consist of Dassault Rafale fighter jets carrying tactical nuclear weapons. In comparison, this capability still falls far short of Russia's vast and comprehensive triad nuclear strike system. To enhance the effectiveness of Europe's nuclear deterrence, it may prove more practical and efficient in the near term for France to share this burden with a nuclear partner rather than pour immense time, effort, and resources into expanding its own arsenal alone.
这次与英国协调核威慑力量也可能反映了法国对独立领导欧洲安全防务尤其是核防务仍心有余而力不足。单就核力量纸面数据看，法国仅有4艘“凯旋”级战略导弹核潜艇担负着核威慑的重任，空基核力量则以“阵风”等战术战斗机为主，其体量较之俄罗斯庞大且完整的“三位一体”核打击体系仍有不小差距。为了提高欧洲核威慑能力的有效性，与其说耗费大量时间和精力、投入大量资源提升法国自身核能力，还不如增加核伙伴、共同分担核威慑责任，这或许是短时间内提升欧洲核威慑能力的最有效方式。
A Rafale fighter jet carries an ASMP-A air-launched nuclear missile under its fuselage.
“阵风”战斗机机腹下挂载了一枚ASMP-A空射核导弹。
The UK's embrace of nuclear cooperation with France may well be driven by its long-standing strategy of maintaining a balance of power in Europe. Historically, Britain has often acted as a disruptive force on the European continent, playing the role of a "balancer" that pits the strong against the weak. Relying on its insular geographic position, the UK has maintained a special posture in European affairs, neither fully integrated nor completely detached. When Europe is in a position of relative weakness, Britain tends to actively engage in European affairs to boost its standing and secure its interests. Conversely, when a dominant power emerges on the continent or when Europe as a whole moves toward greater unity and strength, the UK often resorts to political, diplomatic, or economic means to sow discord and hinder European cohesion, thus preventing a united and powerful Europe from threatening its own interests.
英国迎合法国核合作举动，有可能是对欧均势策略所致。英国历史上一直扮演着欧洲“抑强扶弱”的搅局者角色。凭借其岛国的地理位置，英国在欧洲事务中保持着特殊的立场，既不融入，也不脱离，当欧洲处于弱势时，英国往往积极参与欧洲事务，从中提高自身地位，为自己谋求利益；而当欧洲出现强势一方，或是欧洲整体趋于团结向上发展时，英国则通过政治外交和经济手段给欧洲添堵找麻烦，抑制欧洲的团结发展，以避免一个团结强大的欧洲崛起危及自身利益。
It cannot be ruled out that London's high-profile announcement of sharing Europe's nuclear security framework with France is part of a calculated move to position itself to intervene in and influence Europe's security landscape for its gain in the future.
不排除英国此时高调宣布与法国共担欧洲核安全体系，是英国为了未来干预和影响欧洲安全局势为其牟利的一步棋。
However, the practical impact of UK-France nuclear defense cooperation is likely to be limited. For nearly six decades, the UK's nuclear strategy has been heavily dependent on the US, so the possibility of the UK detaching from the US nuclear posture to build a truly European deterrence framework with France remains low. Therefore, this latest joint statement with France is more likely a demonstration of the UK's desire to show its stake in European security and reaffirm its place in the European family.
但英法核防务合作很可能难以实现实际效果。近六十年来，英国的核军事战略对美国依附性较强，英国试图脱离美国核作战体系转而建立与法国的欧洲核威慑体系的可能性较低。因此，英国此番与法国的联合表态，很有可能仅是表现英国关乎欧洲安全、是欧洲大家庭一员的姿态展示。
In the Northwood Declaration, the two countries declared that any adversary threatening the vital interests of either the UK or France may face a joint nuclear response. However, the threshold for what constitutes a threat to vital interests is extremely high, meaning the red line for a joint UK-France nuclear response holds little real strategic deterrent value.
两国在《诺斯伍德宣言》提出“任何威胁英国或法国核心利益的对手，都可能面临两国核力量的联合回应”。但所提及的“威胁核心利益”触发门槛较高，英法联合使用核武器的“红线”并不具备实际的战略威慑意义。
Editor's Note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
